Paul’s Latest Monday Market Updates
Paul's Monday market update for April 7, 2025, highlighted the volatile market conditions influenced by Trump's announcements and upcoming tariffs. The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen strengthened off the back of capital flowing to safe havens, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened, confirming the risk-off environment. Key indices like the DAX and FTSE showed significant declines, with the DAX completing a double top pattern. Gold and silver experienced volatility, while Bitcoin continued its downward trend. The 10-year U.S. treasury yield dropped from 4.63% to 4.00%, potentially saving the U.S. government $63 billion in refinancing costs. The session emphasized the importance of managing risk and staying informed amidst market uncertainties.
The Monday market update for March 31, 2025, covered the strength and weakness in FX indices and commodities. Sterling remained top, while the Aussie, Kiwi, and Canadian dollars were at the bottom, indicating a risk-off sentiment. Gold and silver remained strategic buys, while Bitcoin was bearish. Key charts included Deutsche Bank's potential breakout, Goldman Sachs' bearish reversal, and the FTSE's bearish rejection. Upcoming events include a webinar on turning around trades. The session emphasized managing risk due to upcoming tariffs and US data releases.
The market update for March 24, 2025, covered FX markets, indices, and specific stocks. Sterling led major currencies due to anti-dollar sentiment though may experience headwinds from upcoming UK economic data. Europe followed closely, boosted by political changes. The Japanese yen weakened post-BOJ meeting. The Canadian dollar remained weak, while the New Zealand dollar saw a brief relief rally which faded at the end of the week . Key indices like NASDAQ and S&P 500 showed mixed performance around the 50-period moving average. Tesla's stock faced a significant sell-off, with support around $220-$240. Boeing saw a $30 jump after winning a US Air Force contract. Disney's live-action remake underperformed, impacting its stock. Upcoming data and the UK's spring statement could influence Sterling's performance.
The Monday market update for 17 March 2025 covered the performance of major FX indices and commodities. Japanese yen and British Sterling led, with the latter benefiting from anti-US dollar sentiment and Brexit. Key events include the Bank of Japan's policy rate meeting, FOMC meeting, Swiss National Bank's monetary policy, and the Bank of England's NPCs official bank rate meeting. Gold and silver prices surged, while Bitcoin remained bearish. Delta Airlines and United Airlines showed significant weakness, with both closing below their weekly 50-period moving averages. Kiwi dollar strengthened against major currencies, driven by US dollar weakness and positive Chinese data.
The Monday Market Update discussed market trends and upcoming events. The Japanese yen remains strong, while the Canadian dollar and Kiwi dollar are weak. Sterling benefits from dollar weakness and anti-Trump sentiment. Major US indices are in a bearish trend, with the Russell 2000 in a strategic sell. Key economic events include US CPI, JOLTS job openings, and GDP, and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. The discussion also covered specific charts, including the CAC 40, Oracle, XLF - the financial ETF, and AutoZone, highlighting trends and potential trading opportunities. The overall sentiment remains risk-averse and bearish.
The Monday Market Update for the 3rd of March 2025 covered the strength and weakness in FX markets, highlighting the Japanese yen and sterling as top performers due to risk-off sentiment and the US dollar's weakness. The discussion included a detailed analysis of defense stocks like BAE Systems, SAAB, Leonardo, and Qinetiq, which saw significant gains post-weekend European defense spending announcements. The session also examined major indices and commodities, noting a bearish outlook for the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Russell, while gold showed bearish signs. Bitcoin's volatility and sterling's strength against major currencies were also discussed.
The Monday Market Update for February 24, 2025, covered the current state of FX, Indices, and Commodities. Key points included the Japanese yen and Sterling's strength, with the US dollar weakening due to tariff tensions. The euro showed a relief rally post-German elections. European defence stocks like Rheinmetall and Leonardo are performing well, driven by increased defence spending. Gold and silver remain strategic buys, while Bitcoin is a tactical short. The Dollar Index showed weakness, with the euro and Swiss franc gaining against it.
The Monday Market Update for February 10, 2025, highlighted the Japanese yen overtaking the US dollar as the strongest currency due to Trump’s tariff announcements. The Aussie dollar showed initial strength, while the euro and Canadian dollar weakened. Key data points include American CPI on Wednesday and UK GDP on Thursday. Technical analysis of stocks like Google and Microsoft indicated potential short-term bearish opportunities. Gold and silver continued their bullish trends, with gold breaking through $2900. The pound showed mixed performance against various currencies, with a focus on upcoming UK economic data. The session concluded with a reminder of upcoming webinars and the next market update in two weeks.
The Monday Market Update discussed the impact of Trump's tariff announcements on currency markets. The dollar and Japanese yen strengthened, while the Canadian and euro weakened. Upcoming American data, including manufacturing PMI and jobs reports, will influence market trends, but not as much as the Trump Trade Tariffs. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, did not rise as high as would be expected, a sign of market participants being comfortable with the move, and less confidence in ViX as an indicator. Key indices like the Dow and NASDAQ both sold off, with potential for further volatility. Gold and oil prices were also affected, with gold showing strong buying interest. The analysis emphasized the importance of risk management and staying informed on news flow for the volatile week ahead.
Paul's Monday market update for January 27, 2025, analyzed the performance of major currencies and tech stocks. The dollar remains strong but has weakened slightly due to Trump's lack of immediate tariff policies. The Euro and Sterling have seen brief boosts, while the Swiss franc and Japanese yen have gained as risk-off sentiment returns. Tech stocks like Nvidia and the NASDAQ have experienced significant declines, with Nvidia down 5% overnight. Gold and silver have shown mixed performance. The DAX and FTSE 100 have also seen declines, with the DAX down 3% pre-market. The session emphasized the importance of risk management and staying informed about upcoming economic and geopolitical events.
The Monday Market Update for January 20, 2025, highlighted key trends and forecasts in the foreign exchange and commodities markets. The U.S. dollar remained strong, with potential fluctuations due to the inauguration of President Trump. The Japanese yen showed strength, with expectations of a 0.25% interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan. The British pound weakened, influenced by economic projections and political uncertainties. Gold and silver prices were bullish, driven by global economic policies. Major indices like the NASDAQ and DAX showed positive trends, with key reversal candles indicating potential continuation. The focus for the week is on Trump's policies and the Bank of Japan's decision.
Paul's Monday market update for January 13, 2025, covered various market trends and forecasts. The U.S. dollar remains strong, with weakness in the Aussie, Kiwi, and Sterling currencies. The Japanese yen showed some strength. Oil prices are rising, driven by geopolitical factors. UK government bonds face rising yields, impacting confidence. American banks' earnings week ahead, with potential bearish trends in financial ETFs. Gold and Bitcoin showed mixed signals. The FX markets highlighted Sterling's continued weakness against major currencies. Upcoming events like the U.S. inauguration and economic data releases will influence markets further.
The Monday Market Update discussed the current state of various currencies and stocks after the festive break. The US dollar remains strong, in spite of potential tariff changes from President Trump. Sterling started the year weakening, with recent sell-offs. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are at the bottom due to China concerns. Key stocks like Delta Airlines and Microsoft showed mixed trends, with Microsoft maintaining a strong uptrend. Gold and silver are holding steady, with gold showing potential bearish signs. The Canadian dollar is strengthening on news of a possible Trudeau's resignation. The Swiss franc is showing bearish trends. Overall, the market is cautious, awaiting Trump's inauguration and economic data releases.
The Monday Market Update for December 16, 2024, covered the performance of major currencies, indices, and commodities. The US dollar regained strength, while the Japanese yen weakened. Flash PMI data showed mixed results, with manufacturing down and services up in France, the UK, and Germany. Upcoming events include the FOMC meeting and the Bank of England’s MPC. Key charts included Nvidia, Carnival, FedEx, and Nike, with potential opportunities identified. Gold and silver showed bearish signs, while Bitcoin remained stable. The session emphasized the importance of monitoring trends and preparing for 2025.
The Monday Market Update for December 9, 2024, covered the week's FX and indices market trends. The Japanese Yen remains strong, while the US dollar showed mixed performance. Key upcoming events include the Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada rate statements, with expectations of rate cuts for the latter. The Comdoll Currencies are at the bottom indicating risk-off sentiment. Oil and gold remain short-term bearish, while Bitcoin and VIX remain strategic buys. The DAX and S&P 500 are at new highs, with the FTSE lagging. The session also highlighted the impact of geopolitical events in Syria and the potential for natural gas price fluctuations.
The discussion focused on the impact of recent geopolitical events and market trends on defense stocks. Key points included the post Trump victory trade of shorting European stocks and longing of US stocks, apart from Defence Stocks with significant effects on companies like Lockheed Martin, which saw a price drop following Elon Musk's critical comments on the F-35. Northrop Grumman also experienced a bearish rejection, falling post-election. European defense stocks, such as Rheinmetall and Leonardo, benefited from the decline in US defense stocks and Trump's views on NATO. Qinetiq faced a bearish rejection from £4.90, after its breakout from its previously traded range between £3 and £4. The conversation emphasized the importance of risk management in volatile markets influenced by political statements.
The Monday market update for November 25, 2024, highlighted the US dollar’s continued strength, now joined by the Australian dollar, while the British pound has weakened significantly. The Euro and Kiwi dollar also showed weakness, influenced by the US election results and the selection of Mr. Bessent as the new US Treasury Secretary. Key charts included META’s bearish reversal, Netflix’s parabolic rise, and MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-driven surge. Upcoming US data releases and the Thanksgiving holiday were noted as potential market movers. The Swiss franc showed unusual weakness on Friday afternoon, indicating possible market manipulation.
The discussion focused on the impact of Trump's appointments on market reactions, highlighting a shift towards safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The Bank of Japan's comments on interest rates influenced market sentiment, with the yen moving up the standings. Sterling performed poorly against most currencies, with it only showing strength against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Oil prices dropped and the DAX and FTSE 100 indices showed signs of weakness. Upcoming UK data, including CPI and retail sales, will influence sterling's performance. The US dollar remained bullish, with significant strength against major currencies.
The discussion focused on the impact of the US election results on financial markets. Key points included the initial market reactions, with the dollar strengthening, the euro and Japanese yen weakening, and oil prices potentially dropping due to policy changes. Specific stocks like Tesla and Bitcoin showed significant movements, with Bitcoin surging upwards. The conversation also covered the performance of indices like the S&P 500 and the DAX, and the expected short-term bearish outlook for oil. Additionally, we highlighted the potential impact of trade deals and political stability on currency markets, particularly the euro and pound.
The Monday market update for November 4, 2024, covered the upcoming US election and its potential impact on currency markets. The US dollar remains strong, but is pausing before the election, while the Japanese yen and Kiwi are weaker. The Euro is showing signs of improvement, despite political instability in Germany. Key indices like the DAX and S&P 500 are experiencing volatility, with some short-term bearish trends, as traders trim positions before the election. The session highlighted the importance of managing risk and positioning for the week's events, including the UK interest rate decision and the US FOMC statement. Paul emphasized the need for careful analysis and cautious trading strategies during volatile periods.
The Monday Market Update for October 28, 2024, highlighted key market trends and upcoming events. Sterling remains strong, with the UK budget on Wednesday expected to be significant. The US dollar is gaining strength, influenced by upcoming economic data and the US election. Japanese yen weakened post-election, impacting the Nikkei. Oil prices dropped 5% due to Israel's military strike on Iran. Major tech companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla are preparing for earnings, with potential volatility expected. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin remain strategic buys. The market is expected to be highly volatile in the coming weeks due to these events.
The Monday market update for October 21, 2024, highlighted the strength and weakness in FX markets. Sterling and the Aussie dollar led, while the Swiss franc, Euro, yen, Kiwi, and Canadian dollars showed varying degrees of weakness. Key indices like the S&P 500 and DAX continued their bullish trends. Gold and silver remained strong, with gold breaking $2,700 and silver surpassing $33. The US dollar strengthened against multiple currencies, indicating potential market shifts. The conversation also touched on the “Trump trade” and its impact on markets, emphasizing the importance of following market trends and data.
The Monday market update for October 14, 2024, highlighted key currency and stock market trends. Swiss franc emerged as the strongest currency, followed by sterling, with mixed performance among other currencies. Upcoming UK data, including jobs numbers, CPI, and retail sales, could impact sterling. Oil prices dropped by 2% due to Chinese economic concerns. The US dollar is regaining strength, affecting currencies like the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc. Equities like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs showed positive trends, with Bank of America up 4% post-earnings. Netflix's upcoming earnings are also significant. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, with a focus on the US election's potential impact.
The Monday Market Update for October 7, 2024, discussed market updates and trends. The Aussie dollar and Sterling remained strong, while the Japanese yen and Euro weakened. The US dollar strengthened, impacting currency pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CAD. Upcoming economic data, including CPI and PPI, were highlighted as key drivers. Charts of interest included PepsiCo, Domino's Pizza, JP Morgan, and BlackRock, with potential price movements based on earnings. The session concluded with a focus on live market indices and commodities, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data for market direction.
The Monday market update for September 30, 2024, highlighted key trends in the FX markets. The Japanese yen regained top strength, displacing Sterling, while the US dollar and Canadian dollar remained weak. The Swiss franc and Euro showed no significant love. The Aussie and Kiwi currencies strengthened due to their interest rate policies. The Chinese stock market surged after interest rate cuts and capital injections. The DAX defied German economic forecasts, hitting new highs. Gold and silver maintained uptrends, while oil remained a strategic short. The upcoming US elections and non-farm payrolls were noted as potential market movers.
The Monday market update for September 23rd highlighted key trends in FX markets. Sterling strengthened, overtaking the Swiss Franc, while the Japanese yen showed signs of weakening despite no interest rate hikes. The U.S. dollar weakened post-half-percent interest rate cut. European PMIs were poor, particularly for France and Germany, weakening the euro. Gold and silver remained strong, with gold pushing towards highs. Key indices like the Dow, S&P 500, and DAX showed positive trends. Notable stocks included Rolls-Royce, PayPal, Costco, and Oracle. The upcoming US election was noted as a significant potential market influencer.
Paul’s monthly market update for September 16, 2024, discussed the upcoming Central Bank meetings, with expectations of a quarter-percent interest rate cut from the FOMC. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc remain strong, while the U.S. dollar is weakening. Oil prices are bearish, and gold and silver are surging. Key charts included Raytheon's bearish reversal due to fines, Adobe's potential double bottom, and FedEx's coiling pattern. The ETF for home builders (XHB) shows mixed signals. The session concluded with live market analysis, highlighting the dollar's decline and the yen's strength.
Paul's monthly market update for September 9, 2024, covered the Japanese yen and Swiss franc's trading positions, with the yen now top and the Swiss franc second. Sterling remains volatile in third place. The US dollar's position may change post-NFP numbers. Indices showed bearish trends, with NASDAQ and Russell turning tactically short. Gold remains bullish, while Bitcoin and oil are bearish. Key charts included Volkswagen, Super Microcomputers, Saab, XLF Finance, Manchester United, and Walmart. The dollar showed potential strength, while sterling weakened against major currencies. Upcoming data releases, including CPI and FOMC, are expected to influence market trends.
Paul Wallace's September 2nd, 2024, money market update covered the performance of various currencies and indices. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen were top performers, while the Canadian and U.S. dollars were weak. The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ showed bullish trends, with key support levels at 20 and 50. Gold reached new highs, and Bitcoin was in a choppy range. Oil prices were stable around $80, with potential bearish signals. The Japanese yen's strength was highlighted, and the U.S. dollar's weakness was noted. Upcoming U.S. data releases are expected to influence market positions.
Paul's Money Market Update on July 29, 2024, covered the FX market's strength and weakness, focusing on Sterling, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Euro, and Dollar. Sterling's strength is due to others' weakness, with Wall Street bankers favoring the UK. The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen have shown strength. The Dollar is mixed, influenced by Fed rate cut expectations. Upcoming data includes FOMC, Bank of England, and non-farm payrolls. Major earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are expected. The session highlighted key charts, including Microsoft's inside bar reversal and Ford's bearish trend, and live market analysis of indices and commodities, emphasizing the importance of staying on top of the economic calendar and managing risk.
The FXTP MMU market update for July 22, 2024, highlighted key trends in FX, indices, and commodities. Sterling and Euro led FX strength, while the Japanese Yen improved. The Canadian and New Zealand dollars weakened. Indices showed mixed performance, with S&P and NASDAQ in a bearish trend, and the Dow and Russell in a strategic buy. Commodities like silver and gold declined, while Bitcoin rebounded. Key charts included CrowdStrike's bearish key reversal and Trump Media and Technology Group's gap up. Upcoming earnings from Tesla and Alphabet were noted, with potential impacts on market direction.